Report examines SA’s consumer market trajectory from 2025 to 2027

Authored by Dr Requier Wait, Chief Researcher at the BMR, the forecast explores how shifting economic and policy conditions are likely to shape consumer behaviour over the next three years. Drawing on both local and global trends, the study integrates policy uncertainty metrics, retail performance indicators and broader macroeconomic signals. 

Now more than ever, a clear understanding of the consumer landscape is essential,” says Wait. “South African consumers are navigating a complex environment marked by sluggish growth, global volatility and rising financial pressures.” 

The latest findings reveal a consumer landscape defined by cautious optimism amid persistent economic headwinds.  

Real household consumption is projected to grow modestly, supported by wage increases and easing inflation, but constrained by elevated household debt and a heavier personal income tax burden.  

Retail sales are forecast to rise by 2% in real terms in 2025, with slightly slower growth expected in 2026 and 2027. The textiles and household goods sectors are poised to lead the recovery, while Black Friday continues to gain traction as a key retail catalyst. 

Key themes in the report include: 

• Macroeconomic pressures: Persistent policy and fiscal uncertainty, coupled with subdued GDP growth projections, continue to weigh on the national outlook. 

• Evolving retail dynamics: Retail trends are shifting, with events like Black Friday becoming increasingly pivotal to seasonal sales performance. 

• Signs of sectoral recovery: Select sectors, particularly services and manufacturing, are showing signs of resilience, contributing to modest gains in employment and wage growth. 

• Heightened consumer vulnerability: Rising living costs, unchanged tax brackets (for inflation) and elevated household debt are placing sustained pressure on disposable income and spending capacity. 

The report also identifies critical areas where businesses and policymakers must adapt, driven by the accelerating impact of generative AI, the shift toward sustainability and ongoing digital disruption.  

Wait stresses the importance of ‘ambidextrous leadership’, balancing operational efficiency with innovation, in South African businesses, noting: “Those businesses that both exploit their current strengths and explore emerging opportunities, whether in AI, ESG practices or digital sales, are best positioned to thrive despite market uncertainty.” 

Comments BMR CEO, Professor Deon Tustin: “In a period marked by volatility and transformation, access to clear, forward-looking insights is essential for shaping resilient business strategies and effective policy responses.”