‘Watershed moment’ as Meta’s ad revenue looks set to surpass Google

This year will be a watershed moment in the digital advertising industry, as Meta will overtake Google in terms of worldwide digital ad revenues by the end of 2026. 

According to the latest forecast for ad spending produced by marketing insights agency Emarketer, Meta will not only surpass Google in terms of dollars, but in terms of share as well, making it the top digital advertising engine. Meta is forecast to reach US$243.46-billion in net worldwide ad revenues in 2026, with Google reaching $239.54-billion.  

“In surpassing Google, Meta has essentially had many of its core strategies validated,” says Max Willens, Principal Analyst at Emarketer.  

“Meta has long understood that scale, network effects and habits are more important than anything else in digital media. It has carefully built and defended the advantages it has in all three areas.” 

Why the shift is happening 

The reason for the shift? Meta is growing at an unprecedented rate for a company of its scale. Its worldwide growth rate will accelerate from 22.1% in 2025 to 24.1% in 2026. Conversely, Google’s growth rate will remain steady at 11.9% this year. 

“Meta’s growth is not coming from just one source,” notes Zach Goldner, Senior Forecasting Analyst at Emarketer.  

“Instead, it’s unlocking more value across its entire ecosystem at the same time. Tools like its Advantage+, AI-generated ad creatives, and its broader automation stack are improving performance across both Facebook and Instagram, with Reels being a big beneficiary. As a result, advertisers are getting better bang for their buck, and that’s pulling more ad dollars onto the platform.” 

Willens says that for most advertisers the question is not whether they should spend money on Meta’s apps, the question is how much they should spend. 

“Google has plenty of levers it can pull to try to speed up growth,” Willens states. “But the diversity of its business – it generates billions of dollars in subscriber revenues from YouTube Premium, for example – may make it harder for it to leapfrog past Meta in terms of digital ad revenues.” 

Amazon is at number three 

Meanwhile, number three player Amazon earned $68.64-billion in worldwide ad revenues in 2025, and it will grow to $82.07-billion in 2026 and $97.07-billion in 2027.  Amazon’s share of global digital ad spending will reach 9.0% in 2026, up from 8.0% in 2024. 

Taken together, the three platforms will represent 62.3% of total worldwide digital ad spending in 2026 and will increase that share slightly through 2028. 

“The consolidation of digital ad dollars around Google, Meta and Amazon reflects a compounding advantage of first-party data, AI integrations and audience reach,” comments Drew Spink, Senior Forecasting Analyst at Emarketer. “Smaller platforms and traditional media can’t replicate these capabilities in comparable cost or speed and, as a result, incremental budgets continue to flow in that direction.”