Worldwide optimism drops and we’re increasingly insular, Edelman warns

This insularity is highest in developed markets, including Japan (the highest at 90%) and Germany, the UK and Canada. The US is on par with the global average.  

Insularity cuts across income, gender and age, and affects both developing and developed markets. 

What’s driving insularity 

Four forces are fuelling the rise of insularity. First is all-time high levels of Economic Anxiety: two-thirds of employees worry that trade policies and tariffs will hurt their employer. Additionally, 54% of low-income and 44% of middle-income respondents believe they will be left behind rather than realise any real advantages from generative AI.  

Second is a Collapse in Optimism: only 32% of respondents believe that the next generation will be better off, with lows in France (lowest at 6%) and various other developed countries. 

Third is Eroding Institutional Trust: low-income respondents see institutions as less competent than high-income respondents and less ethical. Globally, business remains the only institution seen as both ethical and competent.  

Fourth is the Information Crisis: 65% worry that foreign actors are injecting falsehoods into national media to inflame domestic divisions, while only 39% get news from ideologically different sources on at least a weekly basis.   

Next crisis of trust 

“Insularity has emerged as the next crisis of trust,” says Richard Edelman, CEO of Edelman worldwide.  

“Over the past five years, we have seen a descent from fear to polarisation, to grievance and now to insularity. People are retreating from dialogue and compromise, choosing the safety of the familiar over the perceived risk of change.  

“We favour nationalism over global connection and individual gain over joint progress. Our mentality has shifted from ‘we’ to ‘me’. As a result, trust is increasingly concentrated among those closest to us, including ‘My CEO’ (66%), ‘My fellow citizens’ (64%) and ‘My neighbours’ (64%), while nearly 7 in 10 people [surveyed] fear institutional leaders are deliberately misleading the public.” 

The consequences for business 

Rising insularity has fuelled nationalism, making it harder for multinationals to compete against local competitors. Trust in companies headquartered in ‘my country’ far exceeds average trust in foreign companies.  

More than one-third of respondents want fewer foreign companies operating in their home market, even at the cost of higher prices and less choice. Four in 10 (42%) are unwilling to invest in companies that do not share their values. Forty-two percent of employees say they would rather switch departments than report to a manager with different values.   

Developing economies rank highest on trust  

For the second year in a row, developed markets sit at the bottom of the Trust Index, including Japan (lowest), France, Germany, the UK, Spain, South Korea and the US. Developing markets, on the other hand, top the Trust Index. They are led by China, the UAE, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and Nigeria. 

Business surpasses NGOs on ethics 

For the first time, business is viewed as being more ethical than NGOs. Over the past year, business’s ethics score rose, while NGOs fell. Business is now ranked as more ethical and competent than all other institutions. 

The 2026 Edelman Trust Barometer surveyed nearly 34,000 respondents across 28 countries. Africa-specific results will be discussed shortly.