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Uncertainty from ‘Trump factor’ could wipe $20-billion off ad spend

By our African Marketing Confederation News Team | 2025

Research by WARC cuts global advertising spending predictions for 2025 and 2026 as worried businesses curtail their costs.

As the new US administration led by President Donald Trump creates global economic uncertainty and the prospect of multiple trade wars, advertising spending is expected to slow across most major markets, versus the pre-Trump 2024 forecasts.

Photo: Voice of America via Wikimedia Commons

This is according to a report by the World Advertising Research Centre (WARC), which is predicting that ad spend could be slashed by as much as US$19.8-billion in 2025-2026 due to the macro-economic uncertainty. 

 

“The global ad market faces mounting uncertainty as trade tariffs, economic stagnation and tightening regulation disrupt key sectors – leading us to cut growth prospects by $20-billion over the next two years,” explains James McDonald, Director of Data, Intelligence & Forecasting, WARC. 

 

“Automakers, retailers and tech brands, in particular, are now reigning in ad spend amid rising manufacturing costs and mounting supply chain pressures.” 

 

Regulation is another headwind, with the EU tightening its stance on both Google and Apple. Outstanding US antitrust rulings against Google and TikTok also add to a climate of uncertainty for media strategists. 

 

Advertising spending is still likely to increase  

 

However, WARC still foresees the global ad market rising by 6.7% in 2025, to $1.15-trillion in total value. The researcher modelled three scenarios, and if the worst-case scenario comes into play, then the 6.7% prediction may drop to 6.4%. 

 

“Industries experiencing fallout from these policies are likely to peel back on marketing plans, while the President has not ruled out a recession resulting from his economic agenda that would rattle a wider swath of businesses,” comments the marketing industry news website, Marketing Dive. 

 

“Lower macro ad spending can be a leading indicator of a recession taking hold, while consumer confidence has become increasingly grim.” 

 

Added WARC’s McDonald: “Despite the growing volatility, digital advertising remains strong, led by three companies – Alphabet, Amazon and Meta – on course to control over half of the market in 2029.”

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    Dr Kin Kariisa

    Group CEO - Next Media

    Dr. Kin Kariisa is an extraordinary force at the helm of Next Media Services, a conglomerate encompassing NBS TV, Nile Post, Sanyuka TV, Next Radio, Salam TV, Next Communication, Next Productions, and an array of other influential enterprises. His dynamic role as Chief Executive Officer exemplifies his unwavering commitment to shaping media, business, and community landscapes.
    With an esteemed academic journey, Dr. Kariisa’s accolades include an Honorary PhD in exemplary community service from the United Graduate College inTexas, an MBA from United States International University in Nairobi, Kenya, a Master’s degree in Computer Engineering from Huazong University in China, and a Bachelor’s degree in Statistics from Makerere University.
    Dr. Kariisa pursued PhD research in Computer Security and Identity Management at Security of Systems Group, Radboud University in Nijmegen, Netherlands. As a dynamic educator, he has shared his expertise as a lecturer of e-Government and Information Security at both Makerere University and Radboud University.

    Dr Kin did his PhD research in Computer Security and Identity Management at Security of Systems Group, Radbond University in Nigmegen, Netherlands. He previously served as a lecturer of e-Government and Information Security at Makerere University in Kampala, Uganda and Radbond University in Netherlands.

    Dr Kin did his postgraduate courses in Strategic Business Management, Strategic Leadership Communication and Strategies for Leading Successful Change Initiatives at Harvard University, Boston USA.

    • Other current and previous roles played by Dr Kin Kariisa:
    • Lecturer of e-Government and Information Security to graduate students at Makerere University, Kampala and Radbond University in the Netherlands
    • Director of Eco Bank Uganda Limited, one of the largest banks in Africa
    • Chairman of the National Association of Broadcasters, an umbrella industry association for all Television, Radio and online broadcasters in Uganda.
    • Chairman of Board of Directors of Nile Hotel International, that owns the leading hotel in Uganda, Kampala Serena Hotel.
    • Chairman of Board of Directors of Soliton Telmec Uganda, the leading telecom company in Optic fibre business managing over 80% of optic fibre in Uganda.