Uncertainty from ‘Trump factor’ could wipe $20-billion off ad spend

This is according to a report by the World Advertising Research Centre (WARC), which is predicting that ad spend could be slashed by as much as US$19.8-billion in 2025-2026 due to the macro-economic uncertainty. 

“The global ad market faces mounting uncertainty as trade tariffs, economic stagnation and tightening regulation disrupt key sectors – leading us to cut growth prospects by $20-billion over the next two years,” explains James McDonald, Director of Data, Intelligence & Forecasting, WARC. 

“Automakers, retailers and tech brands, in particular, are now reigning in ad spend amid rising manufacturing costs and mounting supply chain pressures.” 

Regulation is another headwind, with the EU tightening its stance on both Google and Apple. Outstanding US antitrust rulings against Google and TikTok also add to a climate of uncertainty for media strategists. 

Advertising spending is still likely to increase  

However, WARC still foresees the global ad market rising by 6.7% in 2025, to $1.15-trillion in total value. The researcher modelled three scenarios, and if the worst-case scenario comes into play, then the 6.7% prediction may drop to 6.4%. 

“Industries experiencing fallout from these policies are likely to peel back on marketing plans, while the President has not ruled out a recession resulting from his economic agenda that would rattle a wider swath of businesses,” comments the marketing industry news website, Marketing Dive. 

“Lower macro ad spending can be a leading indicator of a recession taking hold, while consumer confidence has become increasingly grim.” 

Added WARC’s McDonald: “Despite the growing volatility, digital advertising remains strong, led by three companies – Alphabet, Amazon and Meta – on course to control over half of the market in 2029.”