UN expects African economies to grow in 2026, despite uncertainty

However, high debt-servicing costs and food inflation are among the factors that continue to weigh on the prospects for inclusive and sustainable development, the report stresses.  

It also highlights trade tensions, global uncertainty and challenges related to AGOA (the African Growth and Opportunity Act, a recently expired US law providing eligible sub-Saharan African countries duty-free access to the American market) and the slow implementation of the AfCFTA (African Continental Free Trade Area). 

The report suggests that African growth will remain resilient, despite headwinds such as declining official development assistance, rising trade barriers, and an uncertain global trade and financial environment. 

Performance will, however, vary across sub-regions: 

• East Africa is expected to record the highest growth, at 5.8% in 2026 (compared to 5.4% in 2025), driven by the performance of Ethiopia and Kenya, and supported by regional integration and the expansion of renewable energy. 

• North Africa is expected to slow slightly to 4.1% in 2026 (after 4.3% in 2025). 

• West Africa is also expected to slow to 4.4% in 2026 (after 4.6% in 2025). 

• Central Africa at 3.0% in 2026 (after an estimated 2.8% in 2025). 

• Southern Africa will grow at 2.0% in 2026 (after 1.6% in 2025). 

Debt and persistent budgetary constraints 

The report estimates that Africa’s average public debt-to-GDP ratio will reach 63% in 2025, with interest payments absorbing nearly 15% of public revenue. It notes that a few countries have regained access to international markets through new bond issues.  

At the same time, around 40% of African countries remain in a situation of over-indebtedness or are at high risk of becoming so, and several are seeking to restructure under the G20’s common framework. 

The report also highlights that limited fiscal space continues to constrain development spending, even as reform and consolidation efforts are progressing in some of the larger economies. 

Exposure to global trade tensions remains limited 

The report points out that African trade grew in 2025, supported by significant exports of precious metals and agricultural products, as well as increased imports of transport equipment. 

It notes that the region’s exposure to global trade tensions remains limited, thanks to the diversification of export partnerships and exemptions from higher US tariffs on key products such as crude oil and gold.  

However, the expiry of the African Growth and Opportunity Act and the introduction of new tariff measures pose challenges for some exporters, particularly in the clothing sector. The report also notes that implementing the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) has been slow and uneven. 

This story was originally published by ‘Africa Renewal’, a digital magazine of by the United Nations. Published here with permission.